序言：随着科技进步对保险业影响的逐步加深，“保险科技”已成为行业“热词”。从数字驱动到产业颠覆，从智能化应用到行业监管……各种观点不断涌现。北京保险研究院作为保监会打造的支持保险业改革和发展的高端智库，通过对“保险科技”及其深远影响的全局性、前瞻性分析与思考，也形成了一系列观点，并将于近期召开以《风险变异――保险生态的科技重构逻辑》为主题的大会。
Lemonade: The Mobile-Based, AI-Fueled Insurance Industry Disruptor
Lemonade，一个基于移动端、利用AI的保险行业颠覆者
作者：Dr. Robin Kiera
译者：易晨
本文中文版版权归北京保险研究院所有，转载请标明出处
Lemonade, the mobile-based, peer-to-peer insurance startup has been been dubbed, “The Uber of insurance”. Providing consumers with policies at a fraction of the cost of what competitors offer, can this start-up disrupt a major category of financial services?
Lemonade，这家基于移动端，P2P的保险初创企业被誉为了“保险业的优步”，为消费者提供了价格远低于竞争者的保险协议。这家创新公司能否颠覆这个金融服务的主要领域？
It has been said that complacency in financial services has created an opportunity for disruption by start-ups. And that ‘business as usual’ is the death spiral for legacy organizations … no matter what industry, and no matter what size organization. We see this cultural challenge in all financial services categories, and in all types of organizations.
有种说法，是由于金融服务领域的自满，才为颠覆性初创公司提供了机会。“如往常一样”似乎成了传统企业的死亡漩涡，无论什么行业，也无论公司有多大。我们看到了这个文化正在对所有金融服务领域、所有类型的机构发起挑战。
We have seen that innovative firms change their business models, products and servicesbefore it is required, usually expanding beyond traditional comfort zones. The traditional model of avoiding risks must be put into context with the need to change as the marketplace changes. Clayton Christensen has a great quote on this principle,
我们已经看到了那些创新型企业在需求出现之前就改变了他们的业务模型、产品以及服务，通常都远远超出了传统企业的舒适区。这些规避风险的传统模型由于市场的改变，必须被放在不断革新的环境下。克莱顿•克里斯坦森(Clayton Christensen)对这个原则做出过经典描述：
“It’s not incompetence, but competence, that causes companies to be disrupted. That applies to big companies and small, as well as people too.”
Clayton Christensen
“导致公司被颠覆不是因为无能，而是因为全能。这适用于所有大中小企业，甚至是我们个人”
――克莱顿•克里斯坦森
When I first heard about a well-funded insurtech in stealth mode that planned to reinvent the insurance business model and to disrupt the 3.5 trillion USD global insurance industry well, I was a little skeptical. But then I saw Lemonade demonstrate their artificial intelligence fueled sales and claims process for their renters and home insurance on YouTube. Frankly, I was blown away. A few swipes and typed information after the download later, the customer would be insured no agent, no paperwork, no hassle. Pure convenience.
当我第一次听说一家资金充沛的企业、隐蔽地计划着改变保险业务模型，并打算颠覆一个35亿美元的全球保险市场的时候，我有一些怀疑。但是当我看过Lemonade在Youtube上展示的基于AI的租户与家庭保险的销售、理赔流程之后，说实话，我被震惊了。下载后，在屏幕上扫几下，输入信息之后，客户的投保就完成了――没有中介、没有文件、没有迟疑。有的只是方便。
A Radical Customer-Centric Sales and Claims Process
完全以客户为中心的销售、理赔流程
Having worked in sales and process-optimization projects in Germany’s largest insurance company, it was clear to me that Lemonade, regardless of its future success as a company, had changed the global insurance industry forever. First, Lemonade showed that it’s technically possible to build a radically customer-centric sales and claims process.
曾经在德国最大的保险公司负责过销售、流程优化的项目之后，Lemonade在我看来很明显，不管未来这家公司是否能够成功，已经对全球保险业做出了永久性的改变。首先，Lemonade展现出了如何利用技术去打造一个完全以客户为中心的销售、理赔流程。
Lemonade demonstrated with a live product that the use of chat-bots, artificial intelligence and big data analysis can be implemented in the core of the insurance industry business model. Furthermore, it provides the customers with “instant everything and killer prices” in one of the most regulated places on earth: New York City. Traditional insurance companies can no longer claim that such products and services can’t be provided, or that old processes have to be followed. Lemonade deconstructed that myth for good.
Lemonade通过鲜活的产品，展示了如何将对话机器人、人工智能以及大数据分析应用在保险业模型的核心部分。甚至在地球上监管最严格的城市之一：纽约市，为客户提供了“一切方便、价格至上”。传统保险公司从此无法再说：这样的产品与服务无法做到，或是必须按照过去的方法来做。Lemonade已经将这个咒语打破。
However, the radically customer-centric sales and claims process is in my opinion not even the most disruptive aspect of the Lemonade business model. Lemonade Inc. improves existing processes in an amazing way, but does not reach a different level. In fact, traditional insurers could catch up by investing wisely in agile, proactive, visionary and hands-on digitalization units, independent of their old corporate core.
然而，在我看来，这个完全以客户为中心的销售、理赔流程并不是Lemonade业务模型中最具颠覆性的部分。尽管Lemonade这家公司对现有流程进行了令人吃惊的改造，然而并没有达到无法企及的程度。事实上，传统保险公司依然通过对独立于传统核心的数字化单元进行投资而快速追上。
The true disruption may come from one strategic decision by Daniel Schreiber, Shai Wininger and Dan Ariely: They killed the combined ratio. The founders of Lemonade Inc. have waived this very profitable source of income, resulting in a wholly new business model.
真正颠覆是Daniel Schreiber、Shai Wininger以及Dan Ariely做出的战略性决定：消除综合赔付率（combined ratio）。Lemonade的创始人们通过放弃这个高额利润的收入来源，打造了一个全新的商业模型。
视频字幕：
你有很多东西
你爱你的东西
你永远不希望它们发生任何不好的事情
这就是你购买保险的原因
但是老的保险有些烂
你每月都要付钱
而当你需要帮助的时候
他们会跟你兜圈子
因为拒绝你是他们赚钱的方式
这是不对的
Lemonade不一样
你付给我们一小部分手续费
然后剩下的部分都会用来保护你的东西
因此如果发生了事情
我们会非常快的把钱给你
并且因为我们没有中介，我们超级便宜
所有这些都可以用你的手机轻松完成
但是最棒的部分是
大部分年份我们都会剩下一些钱
我们把这个钱花在你最关心地方
这才是保险原本的意义：保护人们，改善社区
这就是关于我们的一切，Lemonade
The Combined Ratio as a Source of Considerable Profit
综合赔付率代表着可观的收入来源
The combined ratio is a KPI that describes the difference between the total insurance premiums collected by an insurer and the total amount returned to the customers due to claims. Normally, insurers try to pay out less in claims than is collected in premiums. The difference has an immediate effect on the profitability of the insurance company in some cases billions of USD. In one interview, Lemonade-CEO Daniel Schreiber argued: “Insurance companies make money every time they decline a claim. At the end of the day, when you’re demanding money from an insurance company, every dollar they can avoid paying you drops to their bottom line. You end up with a business model where there’s a conflict of interest at the very core of the sector.”
综合赔付率（combined ratio）是一个KPI，其定义是保险公司收取的总保费与由于理赔而退还给客户的总金额之间的差额。通常，保险公司都会试图让赔付支出少于从客户那里收取的保费，这个差额直接反映着保险公司的盈利能力，通常是以十亿美元为单位。在一次采访中，Lemonade的CEO，Daniel Schreiber表示：“保险公司都是通过拒绝赔付来赚钱。当你向保险公司申请退款的时候，他们少退你的每一分钱就掉进了他们自己的口袋。到最后，这个商业模式就在保险行业的核心部分制造了利益冲突。”
Lemonade refuses to accept profit from the combined ratio. Instead of adding the profit to their bottom line, they donate the money to charities (here’s a great blog post by Lemonade’s Jim Hageman about this). The customer even can co-decide which charity receives the donation.
Lemonade拒绝了利润来自综合赔付率的方式。放弃将这部分差额放入公司账户，而是将这些钱捐献给了慈善机构，而且客户可以共同决定捐款给哪家机构。
Consequences for the Insurance Industry
对于保险行业的结果
Studies of EY or Accenture indicate that many customers don’t trust their insurance to pay claims. If a new product of a new company enters the market without that conflict of interest, the impact could be enormous. Customers could switch in large numbers to the product they could trust.
安永或是埃森哲的研究都指出了：多数消费者都不相信他们正在使用的保险公司。如果这个市场上出现了一个没有利益冲突的新公司与新产品，将会对这个市场产生强烈的冲击。消费者会把自己使用的大多数产品改成他们信任的。
In the long term, this could trigger a discussion about the core role of the combined ratio in the current insurance model. Large insurances may need to change their product lines, refraining from using a positive combined ratio to boost their profitability, because customer behavior and customer demands change. This would put tremendous pressure on the other pillars of profitability: the efficiency of internal processes and the sales channels. Considering the maturity of most insurance markets in the Western world, the loss of profitability probably could not be compensated for with moderate restructuring or an uplift of sales, perhaps causing distress in some industry sectors. As Victor Hugo once said, “Nothing is stronger than an idea whose time has come.”
从长远来看，这个会引发一个关于综合赔付率在当前保险模型中地位的讨论。大型保险公司或许需要改变他们的产品线、从正综合赔付率转变成其它的盈利方式，因为消费者行为与需求都发生了改变。这会对保险公司的其它经营支柱产生巨大压力：包括内部流程与销售渠道的效率。考虑到西方国家多数保险市场的成熟度，盈利能力的损失也许无法通过现代化改革或是增加销售来弥补，甚至会导致一些行业领域的灾难。就像雨果（Victor Hugo）曾经说过的：“世界上最强大的,莫过于一个时机恰当想法。”
Most insurance companies currently need tremendous resources to modernize their technical, organizational and cultural legacy systems, and at the same time build customer relationship and claims tools that can keep up with the customer experience that Lemonade or other tech-companies offer.
大多数的保险公司目前需要大量的资源来完成技术上的、组织上的、文化遗留系统上的现代化提升，同时还需要建立客户关系以及理赔工具来跟上Lemonade或是其它技术企业提供的客户体验。
From Problems to Possibilities
从问题到可能性
For some of the smaller or slower insurance companies, this challenge could be too great. However, there is tremendous potential in combining artificial intelligence, big data analysis and customer-centric products and services with a large company’s century-plus of experience and data. First and second movers could use this challenge as a tremendous opportunity.
对于一些小型或是缓慢的保险公司，这个挑战可以说是巨大的。然而，对于大型的、掌握着跨世纪的经验与数据的公司来说，将AI、大数据分析以及客户为中心的产品与服务结合起来依然有可观的潜力。先驱与后来者都可以把这个挑战当做千载难逢的机遇。
In conclusion, I wanted to underline that for me the disruptive potential of Lemonade lies not only in their beautiful user interfaces, impressive artificial intelligence and big data use but in the explosive power of killing the combined ratio.
总体来说，我想强调的是：Lemonade所带来的颠覆不仅仅是他们漂亮的用户交互界面、惊人的AI与大数据的应用，最主要的是抛弃综合赔付率后带来的惊人力量。
作者简介：
Robin Kiera博士（德国）
毕业于汉堡大学，哈佛大学访问学者
Kiera博士是德国保险科技领域最具影响力的人物之一，现在德国最大游戏公司做数据分析咨询。同时Kiera博士还是非常有影响力的金融科技与保险科技的传播者，以发言人、主持人和演讲嘉宾的身份出席全球的科技会议，发表重要观点。其著作重点关注传统保险公司的数字化变革及优秀创新企业的成功。Kiera博士还曾在全球最大的保险公司之一Allianz的董事会任职，建立德国公司的数据处理和分析能力，成功帮助全球公司进行技术结构的改进和流程的优化。
